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    30/08/2007

    优先权

    Term Sheet 101: Preference

    by Matt McCall

    Nearly all VC's use convertible preferred stock as their vehicle of choice. Most entrepreneurs know this but many don't fully understand the different flavors and elements of it.

    Preference refers generally to the seniority of a given class of stock versus others. Preferred A stock usually gets paid back before common and follow-on Preferred issuances (B, C, D, etc) usually have seniority over both the A and common. This means that the investors will get their capital out before the entrepreneur and team usually.

    There are two primary forms of Preferred stock: straight and participating. Straight convertible preferred stock is an either/or situation. Investors can opt to get their capital back but not participate in further upside (e.g. stay as preferred stock…usually the election in downside scenarios) or they can convert to common and participate alongside management & the entrepreneur. The kick point of this conversion is usually pretty clear. If an investor has put $10m in and has 10% of the company, for any exit that values equity above $100m, they will convert to common. For any exit below, they will stay as preferred.

    With participating preferred, investors first get their initial capital out and then participate as common shareholders. So, in the above case, at $100m, the investor would get his/her $10m back and then would get an additional $9m (10% of the remaining $90m). Investors will often use this to hit return targets when having to pay a high initial price.

    Some term sheets will include participation multiples where investors get 2x or 3x their capital out before other classes. This usually happens when there is significant preference (invested dollars) in the company and there is gap between when their get their capital back and when they start to participate in the upside.

    Dividends also play a role in preference. There are cumulative dividends and "when & as declared by the board" dividends. With cumulative dividends, investors "preference" grows each year at a set rate (say 6%), thereby providing an ongoing discount for the investor. This dividend begins to kick in day one. Other dividends start only "when & as declared by the board". I have not generally seen many boards vote to trigger a dividend.

    New preferred stock can be either senior to previous preferred classes (say the Pref B gets its money before the Pref A) or it can be "pari passu" to them (the Pref B and Pref A have the same seniority and come out pro-rata based on their relative sizes). This term usually does not affect the entrepreneur who is subordinated to both classes but is an investor group matter.

    As market conditions tighten, investors look to offset increasingly rockier environments through more aggressive terms. As they get more competitive, terms trend more loosely. Lastly, while earlier investors may lock in strong terms, everything is up for renegotiation when new investors come in. Previous preferred terms can stay in place or, in severe cases, get pushed to common. Participation multiples can be eliminated as can dividends. However, for entrepreneurs looking to use new financings to recut their deals, they should be careful. Earlier investors usually have blocking rights on new capital coming in. Additionally, entrepreneurs that play the sides against the middle (old vs. new investors) will significantly impair their relationship with initial investors if they blatantly play this card.

    Preference takes many forms in venture capital. It is critical that entrepreneurs fully understand the implications of the terms they are accepting so that it does not impact future relationships going forward.  

    29/08/2007

    信息太多

    Too Much Information

    by Matt McCall

    I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that it is temperament & emotional behavior and not intelligence/insight that drives the majority of successful investing.  Knowing common behavioral traps and being aware of your own behavior is key to becoming a truly successful investor.

    Excessively relying on information is one of the behavioral traps that researchers are increasingly focusing their efforts on.  As the amount of information rises around an investment decision, the greater the likelihood that noise will crowd out core signal in the process. In fact, with studies on genius, research has shown that experts do not necessarily process information more quickly than any of us, but rather they simply and cut noise out more effectively. They use pattern recognition to quickly cull options and focus on the most relevant.

    Michael Mauboussin of Legg Mason is one of the more interesting writers in the investment circles. His partner, Bill Miller, is one of the most reknowned investors in the world for having beaten the markets for 13 straight years (just missed last year). He has published two interesting pieces on investment approaches and psychology. I will write later about his second one, Turtles in Omaha.

    Michael recently wrote about the impact of information on horseracing results. The handicappers grew increasingly confident in their rankings as they were given more & more information. The irony, however, is that their predictions deteriorated as they moved from having 5 pieces of information to 40 pieces. So, they became more confident in their results just as they were getting worse.

    I have always been amazed by the simplicity of Warren Buffett's approach. He does not have seas of analysts (I don't believe he may have any) nor does he do excessively deep diligence dives into companies. He becomes "competent" in certain areas and, though he doesn't mention this much, leverages the opinion of key people he knows in each area. This is also why you often see investors have repeated hits in a given area. They are able to determine who has the most reliable and relevant networks in a given field and use them to accelerate decisions.

    For many investors, they develop a gut feel for an opportunity and then leverage data points to confirm that feeling. Some are quantitatively driven in the hedge world but this is not really possible on the venture side due to the immaturity of many business models. Overall, what this says is that good investors are those that can determine effectively what are the key pieces of information versus gaining access to the broadest array of information. Furthermore, it provides a warning to investors that having more information is not always (some would say usually the opposite) a good thing and to not take comfort in masses of numbers and facts. In the end, it is the simple core things and your network of people that makes the difference.

    27/08/2007

    天使还是VC?还是两者都要

    Angels or VCs? Or both?

    by Charlie Odonnell

    I'm pretty sure I'm not allowed to fundraise according to the SEC, so let's just play hypotheticals for the moment... wink wink, nudge nudge.

    IF I was a startup looking to raise seed money for development of a project, ooh.... something similar to Path 101 (I think I've settled on having a space there), and raising somewhere between 250-450k, what should the makeup of that round look like?

    On one side, not many VCs would even do such a round pre-product, but a few of the would.  There are
    some smaller, perhaps more specialized funds that do this sort of thing.  Either way, these are people that are primarily in the business of investing in startups.  To me, the benefit is that they have experience, connections, and they (ideally) have a sense of professionalism around the way they conduct their business.  (i.e. They're not going to show up at your door one night demanding their money back.)

    The one thing I don't necessarily believe is that it makes them any more likely to invest in an A round.  Sure, they've gotten a chance to get to know you, but if a VC is interested, they don't need to put in 200K to do that.  They can take you out to a few lunches and hang around the rim enough to see what you're up to.  Plus, if you don't wind up coming out with a compelling product, they're free to just walk away from the deal anyway.  At least with angels, there isn't an expectation that they're going to participate significantly in an A round, so you won't have egg on your face if it doesn't happen.

    As for angels, you're likely to need them at this point, so I think the question becomes more of a question of composition.  Friends?  Family? Big names?  Angel groups?  A mix?  How many?

    If you can, I think its advisable to avoid friends and family, unless you have friends and family in the business that you're going into, whether its tech or something else.  You'll need their moral and emotional support and you should let them know that's what's important.  You don't want money, or lack of it when the company blows up, getting in the way there.  Plus, unsophisticated investors, even if it's your mom, are probably going to be a little bit of a pain in the butt.  (Although, Jeff Bezos' parents turned out to be good angels...)

    I think a mix should probably be in order.... the professional investors that you know best, and also a few "reach" candidates.  If you could get anyone on board--captains of industry, celebrities, etc--who would it be?  For me, I think anyone on the founding teams of Monster, Careerbuilder, or Hotjobs would be perfect.  Published authors of books like "What Color is Your Parachute?" would be ideal, too. 

    But I'd like to hear from entrepreneurs.  What's been your angel experience?  Surprises?  Who's been a much better addition than you expected?  Who's been a disappointment?  VCs in angel/seed rounds? 

    25/08/2007

    信用危机能够帮助风险投资人

    The credit crunch could help venture capitalists

    By Matt Marshall

    creditcrunch.jpgThe current credit crunch caused by the subprime loaning crisis may help venture capital returns, and therefore start-ups.

    That’s the argument of venture capitalist Keith Benjamin, of San Francisco’s Levensohn Venture Partners, as posted on his blog a few days ago, and which has been picked up by several publications, including this morning’s New York Times (the Times runs a cute graphic of a detour road sign in its story.)

    Coincidentally, we asked Benjamin to write a post about this for VentureBeat. He has done so, and pushes the argument forward in a second post that we’ve published, about how tech stocks are returning to favor.

    His basic argument is as follows: Investors shied away from tech stocks for years, fearing the post-2000 bubble risks. Leveraged investing strategies were perceived as less risky. For the last five years, he watched the skyrocketing returns from hedge funds and buyout funds “with jealousy,” he says. However, now we’ve just witnessed a sharp shift in perception of the risk for those leveraged investing strategies. Investors will return to things like technology technology IPO market, which is what really drives venture returns, and a reinforcing lust to invest in start-ups. Investors have finally demonstrated a willingness to buy technology IPOs. There were some 36 technology IPOs in 2006. He expects to see that number double this year: “In the middle of the liquidity crisis, VMWare went public, traded up sharply and stayed there.”

    Notably, venture capitalist Stu Phillips predicted something like this eight months ago, in a column at VentureBeat, focusing on the likely correction in the buyout/private equity world. In an extreme case of bad timing, perhaps, he gave up raising a venture capital fund two months ago, before the credit crunch hit. At the time, he blamed it on the fact that investors were too focused on private equity to care about investing in another venture firm. Wonder if that’s changed. 

    24/08/2007

    创业企业的黑暗面:共同创始人之间5种有害的冲突

     

    The Dark Side of Startups: 5 Corrosive Co-Founder Conflicts

    by Dharmesh Shah

    Most of the startup writing out there (including articles on this blog) addresses issues of strategy, finance, innovation, product development and other "fun" topics. 

    For this article (which I hope will become the first in a series), I'd like to take a slightly different angle by looking at some of the not-so-pleasant sides of the startup experience.  What I call the "Dark Side Of Startups". 

    The following is a list of the types of co-founder conflicts that I have encountered in my 15 odd years working in and with startups.  Some of them are from my own personal experience, some are from late night conversations with other entrepreneurs dealing with co-founder issues.  If you've kicked off a company and had one or more co-founders/partners in it, chances are some of these might resonate with you -- I'd be very surprised if none of them did.  If you're on the outside, looking in (i.e. thinking about starting a startup), don't let this list dissuade you.  I still think startups are great things, but it's often useful to look at the dark underbelly of exeperiences sometimes to get a fuller understanding of things .

    5 Common and Corrosive Co-Founder Conflicts

    1.  The "Who Gets What?"  Conflict:  This conflict is likely the most common.  Anything that impacts the amount of money made for the various founders has the potential to generate conflict.  The most obvious example is equity in the company. Who gets how much?  Why?  What happens if one of us leaves?  Another example is the issue of founder compensation.  How much should each founder get paid?  Why?  Who gets to change it?  The good news about economic conflicts (vs. some of the others we'll talk about later) is that the conflict itself is understandable and rational.  Everyone wants to be treated fairly and at some level, there is a natural conflict of interest (i.e. if I get more shares, someone else gets less). 

    Under good circumstances, most conflicts in this category can be resolved through discussion, negotiation and perhaps some outside intervention (i.e. an advisor or mediator).  Under bad circumstances, this cannot be reconciled the "easy" way and as such, the legal documents get visited, people hire lawyers and unpleasantness ensues.

    2.  The "I Work Harder Than You!" Conflict:  It is mathematically impossible for each founder to work at exactly the same levels in a startup.    It is natural for each co-founder to invest time/energy based on her situation.  This could be influenced by how much time they have available, how passionate they are about the company (yes, you heard it here first, not all co-founders are totally passionate about the company), their own style, their personal obligations, etc.  When founders begin arguing about who is doing how much, this can often be rooted in the "who gets what" conflict.  Example:  I'm working 100 hour weeks and Joe's only working 50 hours weeks, so I should get twice as many shares as Joe!". 

    3.  The "Who Gets To Decide?" Conflict:  If you and your co-founders are well matched, chances are your skills and talents are not totally overlapping (i.e. they are good at some things and you are good at others).  This resolves most of the "who gets to decide" issues as lots of decisions fall into the area of expertise of one co-founder or another.  If the founding team is functioning well, most decisions never become issues.  But, there are two areas where issues do arise:  When you both have some background/expertise in an area (or believe you do) and when neither of you has any background -- but both have opinions.  One common example of this is raising capital when all/most of the co-founders are first-time entrepreneurs.  Everyone has opinions on whether or not to raise capital -- and if so, how much and from whom.  Since there are no easy answers to this (even when you have had prior experience), conflicts can occur.  A lof the conflict in this category really comes down to personal goals of the co-founders.  Some want/like control. Some like/want a certain outcome ("We've raised money from a major VC -- woo hoo!") and some just want to build something cool.  When decisions impact the various personal goals of the founders, tensions can arise.  My only advice here is to have conversations about this as early in the process as possible.

    4.  The "I Can't Stand Jill, One Of Us Has To Leave!" Conflict:  This is the worst.  If the situation degenerates to the point where two co-founders are so conflicted that one or the other has to leave the company, several bad things can (and likely will) occur.  In some situations, it's not the loss of a co-founder that's the most traumatic for the startup -- but the time leading up to the loss.  If there are other members on the team, their morale is impacted.  If there are other co-founders (besides the two in conflict), they are pushed to "take sides".  Lots and lots of unpleasantness.  Of course, getting to this point is not always a bad thing.  There comes a time in the evolution of a startup that it makes good sense for a co-founder to leave.  Everyone involved discusses the situation, determines what the best path is for the company and parts friends.  It's all rainbows and sunshine. If you find yourself with this situation, congratulations, you're working with some great people.  If not, and you have this conflict, your life is going to suck for a while.  My sympathies are with you.

    5.  The "We're Going Down In Burning Flames…" Conflict:  In my experience, most startups have near-fatal experiences regularly.  In my first startup, not a year went by that we didn't he a day where we just thought the company was going to die.  It could be some major product issue.  Could be the potential loss of a significant client.  Could be the draconian activities of an important business partner.  Whatever it was, something really bad was going on and it was easy to come up with all the reasons why the company would just not be able to survive this setback and the "why don't we just cut our losses" type thinking begins.  The conflict arises because not all the co-founders will see the situation in the same way.  Some, because they're natural optimists (like me) and will ignore the evidence.  Others, because they are influenced by having too much, or too little at stake in the game.  Regardless, the conflict arises because one or more co-founders want to just go ahead and call it quits -- and the others do not.  As is usually the case in these situations, there's no clear answer.  Perhaps it is time to call it quits, but nobody really knows for sure In my first startup, we had several of these near-death experiences, but did not decide to call it quits and were reasonably successful.  In another of my startups, we probably should have called it quits sooner, but didn't.  In any case, it's hard to know the right answer and even if you knew, it's sometimes hard to get everyone to agree.

    So, what do you think? 

    Have you experienced (or are you experiencing) any of the above conflicts now?  How do you deal with them?  When do you bring in outside help?  [Note to self:  Write future article about the difficulty of finding competent, non-conflicted advisors]. 

    Have I missed any major types of conflicts?  Leave a comment, and let us know (even if it's just to vent).

    23/08/2007

    想要风险投资?做好准备

    Venturing into venture capital? Be ready.

    by Amar Goel

    Since I've gone through the process of raising venture capital a few times I often get asked how it works and what it's like.  I thought I'd share some learnings, based on my experiences. I'm not an expert by any means, but I've done it a couple of times so I am not a total newbie. Here are a few thoughts I have:

    1. Before trying to raise venture capital, decide what you want your business to become. Think out 3-5 years and figure out what ideally would your business look like in terms of size (revenues and people) and what business are you in.  If you are not sure about wanting to build a large business then do not raise venture capital.  If you are concerned giving other people a lot of say in your business do not raise venture capital.  If you never want to sell your company or go public do not raise venture capital.  If you would like to build at least a $20M business over 3-5 years and ideally a $100M+ business over 5-7 years you are a prime candidate for venture capital.  If you want to build a $3M business over the next 5 years do not raise venture capital. 

    Venture capitalists are in the business of giving entrepreneurs money and then eventually getting some multiple of that return back.  They do that by investing in people they think can build big businesses, by investing in concepts that they think can be big businesses, and then eventually turning their equity stake into cold hard cash.  Venture capitalists get their money from investors and they have to return a lot more back to their investors some years after taking the money.  These are the things that motivate venture capitalists.  If you are doing something that is not in line with this then working with venture capitalists will be very painful.

    Having venture capitalist invest in your company means you are signing on to be a high growth company and will do the things necessary to grow quickly and build the talent base, processes, and infrastructure that is necessary to support a high growth business.  This is great if the business is doing well; if the business runs into tough times and you are not profitable but rather investing in your company this can cause the company to run off a cliff (i.e., run out of money) or you to lose control of your company.   Just something to think about…

    2. It takes a lot of time to raise venture capital.  Let me restate that in a more emphatic fashion: it takes a crapload of time to raise venture capital.  I started my first company when I was 19.  It was an e-commerce company called Chipshot.  When I graduated from college at age 22 I went to raise venture capital.  As you can imagine most venture capitalists wanted nothing to do with a 22-year old (this doesn't make that much sense to me since all the biggest hits ever have come from folks in their 20s, maybe another post on that later, I guess too many failures of folks in their 20s).  Anyways, I digress.  Back to the subject… I did have a running business doing $100k a month, and for 1998 that was quite a bit of business to be doing online, so venture capitalists were interested.  Turning that interest into funding took 4 months of almost full-time work.  I basically spent 15 hours a day on phone, email and in meetings selling the heck out of my company and our team.  Then once you find some folks who are interested, you have to figure out if how they value your company is how you value your company and if then negotiate the deal.  Trust me, with term sheets, lawyers, negotiations, strategizing, and, oh yeah, you wanted to spend some time on your business, right? — it is brutal.  We were lucky to get through this process, not kill our business (thanks to some great guys on our team), and find some great partners in Sequoia Capital who invested $3M in our business in September of 1998. 

    I find lots of people who seem to get really excited by the prospect of raising venture capital.  Don't be.  It's overrated.  It takes a lot of time and takes you away from your main aim - which is building your business.  Venture capitalists, for the most part, are decent people who are investors.  Some are very smart and people who I love to interact with, some I wonder what value they add.  There is nothing special about them as a whole.  And raising venture capital, while a nice milestone for your business, does not make your business a success.  It, in fact, raises the bar higher on the success you have to achieve.  The goal of your business is not to raise venture capital (well maybe it is, but I don't think it should be).  The goal of your business is probably to have lots of happy customers and employees and make truckloads of profits (maybe in a different order).  Don't forget that - the sexiness of a press release saying you raised venture capital from XYZ and ABC lasts about 1 day.

    3. Most venture capitalists are paid not to be innovative dreamers, but rather data driven.   How many times have you seen a venture capitalist do something innovative, something that really changes the VC business?  Recently, Charles River Ventures started the CRV QuickStart program.  I was impressed by this - a VC actually shipped a product that dealt with the changing nature of the venture business and did it in a very advantageous way to them and to entrepreneurs.  Impressive.  But these examples are few and far between. 

    VCs are not in the business of coming up with crazy ideas and then throwing them against the wall and seeing if they stick.  That is the job of entrepreneurs.  That's why most VCs will be loathe to invest in some "idea" you have that will change the world that nobody has ever done before.  If you can't give them any proof points of people using your product, or some initial demonstrations of the technology, or some customers who say "if you build this I will buy it" they will push you to get to this stage before they invest.  For VCs, it's all about risk and reward. Bill Gurley, a partner at Benchmark Capital, talks about wanting to invest in social networking companies after they've taken off, as it's really hard before the fact to figure out which ones will be successful.  About a year ago I had a VC at a top firm tell me that they prefer to invest in Series B deals over Series A in India because they find that valuations haven't gone up that much (maybe 50%), but the business has had the chance to evolve a lot more and is derisked (if that's a word).  Way lower risk, almost the same reward. 

    4. Venture capital is expensive, and there are many other forms of investment available.Venture capital is a very expensive form of investment for your company.  If you are the typical early stage startup you are going to give 20-35% of your startup for $1-4 million of investment.  If you were instead to raise $2M of debt you might pay a 10-15% interest rate, so each year of debt would cost you $200-300k in interest payments.  That is a lot cheaper than selling 20-35% of your company.  The catch, of course, is that for a high risk venture that has a good chance of flaming out it will probably be difficult/impossible to raise debt unless you have an amazing track record of building companies before (if you have an amazing track record you probably wouldn't be reading this posting). 

    Friends and family and angel investors are another route.  It is harder to raise large amounts of money from these groups, but if you just need a $100k or $500k to get to some milestones friends and family and angel investors might be easier to work with and you will sell less of your company in aggregate. 

    Of course, there is also investing your own money.  I started my current company Komli by investing my own money.  I felt this aligned me with all my investors and showed my commitment, I also wanted to bet on myself.  Investing your own money is more of a personal choice as you are also investing your own time and energy and may be getting a lower salary at your startup than you did in the corporate world (which is your opportunity cost).  I also once had a good friend tell me that if you work in the corporate world don't get your life built around making some huge salary.  Manage your life so you can live on some relatively decent money (he said $75-100k in the US), and then just save the rest.  This way when you start something you can invest your own money to get it going, and having to go from some high salary to some lower salary (like $50k or $12k for a while) won't be an impossibility.  If think is decent advice; it's not easy for most people to follow though. 

    5. The right venture capital partner can be very valuable to you as an entrepreneur.   After hopefully giving you some nibblets to chew on and think about before rushing into venture capital, I will say that the right venture investors can be HUGELY helpful to building your business.  I have been lucky enough to work with a number of venture capitalists in my career and so far I haven't had any bad experiences with the folks who have invested in my company.  I have been lucky enough to have only good experiences.  It's a little bit like a marriage so choose your partner carefully; it's pretty hard to get your venture capitalists out of your company if you decide later that you don't like them.  Venture capitalists can generally bring you one or more of the following things: 1) strategic understanding of the market, 2) technical knowledge of the market and how to build a better product, and 3) relationships/Rolodex, and 4) venture capital wisdom (this is the catchall category that represents the wisdom many venture capitalists have after having played the game a hundred times before your company).  Think about what you want out of your venture capitalists — what things are you weak at and what do you need help with.  Just like having the right employee makes your life so much better having the right venture investor helps you think through a lot of issues, provides a sounding board, and knows enough people to ask for a second opinion when you want a second opinion. 

    Okay, those are my thoughts.  I hope it helps.  Look forward to any comments.

     
    22/08/2007

    融资:排他协议

    Fundraising: No-Shop Agreements

    by Dick Costolo

    We'll see if I have the ability to write a short post on this blog. If there were ever an opportunity, here it is. Some VC's will ask entrepreneurs to sign a no-shop agreement as part of signing a term sheet. As usual, Brad Feld has thoroughly dissected the VC perspective on no-shops and I found this follow-up to his own initial post on the subject to be a very worthwhile read.

    First, the very basics. Signing a VC term sheet with a no-shop clause basically means that you, the entrepreneur, will not continue to look for other investors to fund your company on favorable terms while you and the investor behind this term sheet hammer out your final agreement. Since the time between term sheet and closing the financing can be 30-60 days, you are obviously very committed to getting this deal done. Note that there is a wide range of VC behavior and you'll hear stories that run the gamut from assorted entrepreneurs. Most no-shops have a time limit associated with them like 30 days.

    Here's my general thinking on no-shop agreements. I don't think you should sign no-shops for your A round, but I care less about them as the company progresses and you raise later rounds. I wouldn't sign one during the A round because during this time, you are spending an inordinate amount of time on financing. It's a full-time job for the CEO. Because you need money to really make progress, the no-shop on an A round really backs you into a corner. You *have* to get the deal done, because you need the cash to make progress, and thus, you are much more vulnerable to a potential investor trying to trade down on you as you progress...there can be any number of reasons/excuses for trying to retrade the deal, but all of them are bad for the entrepreneur who's signed a no-shop on an A round deal. So, all things being equal, I think signing a no-shop agreement on an A round is a bum deal for the entrepreneur.

    In later round deals, eh, I don't care so much about this term for a couple reasons. First, I like to raise money when we don't need it (yes, I realize i wrote "I....we....". So shoot me). By getting out and doing a round when you don't need the money at all but know that you will 6-8 months down the road, you can be patient and aggressive and try to build the syndicate you want (yes, I realize I've now switched to the second person...enjoy the roller-coaster that is my lousy writing education). Where were we....Secondly, since you have money in the bank and you're growing the business, in theory, things should be getting better and better on a month to month basis. If the investor tries to re-trade the deal on you while you're under no-shop, you are in a lot better position in this later round situation than you are in an A round. Walk away from the deal if they try to retrade it and once the no-shop expires, start working with others.

    The challenge with this advice is that if you're in a position of strength in a B or C round, it's probably easier to get the no-shop removed in the first place anyway, but nonetheless, I generally think it's something to avoid in an A round where you don't have a good feel for the investor's track record on these things, and something to be less concerned about in a later round as long as you've got money in the bank, you're growing well, and you've given yourself loads of time to get a financing done well ahead of the need.

    Full disclosure - I have never signed a financing term sheet with a no-shop, so I couldn't tell you much about how hard these are to negotiate out. Other full-disclosure, every time I write "I" in this blog, I generally mean "me and the other cofounders and members of the executive team", but "I" feels so much more rewarding, you know?

    Not such a short post after all.

    21/08/2007

    PE市场的前景是怎样的?

    What is the current prognosis for the private equity market?
     

    Friedman estimated that it could take four to six months for the current financing log jam to clear up; but then, he said, private equity activity should restart.

    Looking ahead, Friedman asserted that the private equity business is by no means over, noting estimates of roughly one-half trillion dollars of capital yet to be called.

    But, he said, investors should expect noticeable changes in the industry going forward.

    He anticipates the large mega deals that had dominated the market in recent months will become rare and that deal sizes for large firms will average in the $1-10 billion range.

    He also expects to see lower prices, lower leverage levels, and ultimately wider spreads. Friedman maintained that, amid all the market uncertainty, the private equity industry remains strong: Owners of private equity firms have had good performance, and continue to have access to a lot of low-cost capital.

    At the same time, he cautioned investors to be alert to signs of further deterioration in the broader economy. "There are some obvious industries, such as real estate and autos, where we expect to see weaker results," he said. "So far, the weakness does not seem to have spread. But if we start to see that this credit tightening is having a broader impact, private equity firms will need to examine the companies in their portfolios more closely."

    When asked how long it might be before the private equity market resumes its normal pace of activity, Friedman indicated it could take 18 months to two years for banks and investment banks to make the necessary decisions to resolve their backlog of loans.

    noted that, interestingly, the problem to be resolved is not really a credit issue, but rather a supply-demand imbalance. As for what might happen to the half-trillion dollars in uncalled capital--that, he said, is too soon to tell.

    20/08/2007

    对出售公司的一点儿想法

    Few thoughts about selling your company

    by fred wilson

    A friend of mine recently successfully sold his company to a large company.

    Everyone was happy at the time. Founders were happy. Customers (end users) were happy. Everyone truly believed the product was going to be even better with a fat wallet and corporate muscle behind it.

    But my friend told me he just quit. After a few months he couldn't take it anymore. He couldn't breathe in the larger environment. He couldn't innovate. He couldn't take the corporate politics. He couldn't handle the red tape.

    So he quit. Left a significant amount of money on the table, probably toasted some business relationships along the way. And while he is financially okay in the grand scheme of things - he's not happy. He believes that his product and vision would have been much bigger if he held out. At least for another year. No regret. Just a little pissed. Maybe more than a little actually.

    Unfortunately this happens all the time. And it's not surprising. When entrepreneurs start a company they are in "damn the torpedoes" mode. They are going for it all. Once inside a big company it's really hard to do. No one else at the big company feels the same way about the product as the founders. Even worse there are folks at the big company that probably were against the acquisition in the first place. Or maybe there is a competing product.

    It's more than just money at stake. Its purpose. And desire. Giving someone liquidity and nothing else isn't enough.

    The best examples I've seen where the big company does a good job keeping the founders is when they really support the startup post acquisition. Or when they give the founders significant autonomy. Or when they give the founders big roles well beyond the the startup they acquired. 

    19/08/2007

    怎样获得自己的VC推荐

    August 17th, 2007

    How To: Make Your Own VC Referrals!

    by Alexander Muse

    You need a referral to get most VCs to return your call.  If you are trying to raise capital from VCs you will need to talk to them over the phone to a) gauge their interest in your business, b) see if your business philosophies mesh and c) to schedule the ever important face-to-face meeting.  When I was in money raising mode in the late nineties there were over 1,000 venture capital firms across the United States.  I must have talked to more than 100 of them, scheduling meetings with perhaps half of that many.  I could get less than 10% of venture partners to even return my call without a referral.

    Today, lots of people call me and ask, "do you know such-and-such at such-and-such venture firm, I need a referral."  In some cases where I know both the entrepreneur and the venture partner I will make a call to grease the wheels.  In other cases I may just say, "you can use my name and explain that I recommended you call."  It all depends on how well I know the entrepreneur or the VC.  Bottom line, in my experience, without a referral you aren't very likely to receive a return call.  With a referral your success rate will be 50/50 based on the quality and type of referral.

    For those of you who don't know me and need a referral to a specific VC I recommend a simple way to "Make Your Own VC Referral."

    • Step One: Determine which firms you want to talk to.  Based this decision on which firms have previously funded deals in your space.
    • Step Two: Figure out which partner at your target firms you want to work with.  Based this decision on which partners managed the deals you used to decide which firm to call. 
    • Step Three: Contact the CEOs of the companies the VC partner funded.  Let the CEO know that you are considering working with one of their VCs and suggest that you plan to talk to the partner they work with.  See if he will answer a few questions about his experience with them.  Usually a CEO will return your call very quickly.  Ask him real questions that might help you determine if, in fact, you really want to work with the firm and partner you found on the Internet.  Hint: not every VC is fun to work with.
    • Step Four: Contact the VC partner (i.e. leave him a message) and explain that you had a chance to talk to such-and-such CEO of his portfolio company.  Tell him that based on that conversation he sounds like just the sort of investor you are interested in working with.  Ask him if he would be interested in getting together for coffee to discuss your business.  More often than not you will get a return call.

    Get it?  By following these simple steps you can create your own referral.  Of course, don't be deceptive, the VC will soon realize that you don't really know his CEO and that is fine.  You are obviously the sort of business person that does his homework.  You are just as concerned about him as he should be in you and your business.

    One side note, if you ever see that "submit a plan" button on a VCs website run away. NEVER, EVER submit your business plan blindly to a VC.  You don't want to be 'that guy.'  Always send your plan to a real person, someone you have actually talked to.  It would be like putting a "Submit Termsheet" button on your website.  If you actually got one from someone who obviously knows nothing about you would you take it seriously (assuming you can make payroll next month).  Good Luck!  

    16/08/2007

    VC税率改变了

    Changing tax on VCs

     

    By Jean-Luc

    Washington post article on how Carry works

    And why the tax on it is unfair.

    Interest on the carry is at the 15% cap gains rate, not the 35% for regular income.

    So therefore, when the big payday happens and everyone gets money distributed back, right now, the carry is taxed at the 15% for the General Partner, and the Limited Partners.

    The outcry is that this is unfair, and that the GPs should be paying 35% on the carry they earn, since it is regular income from services rendered, just like the management fee.

    Heck, I’m surprised they’re not going to consider it gambling revenue, but in anycase, the argument is that the revenue to the GP should be at a 35% rate.

    And it hits a small enough, population that’s seen to be wealthy enough to afford it, so there’s little political risk, and little chance something won’t be done.

    But does this solve the issue?

    No.

    There are always unintended consequences in every action.

    If a special IRS rule comes out saying that the GP interest will be taxed as ordinary income, then an army of lawyers and accountants will find out which structure would be most advantageous, and then move on.But as these general partners move over to different structures, then there will be more unintended consequences and further flack or disruption to current company structures and taxes. 

    15/08/2007

    VC尽职调查--小孩的游戏?

    The NYTimes has an article on the developing habit of venture capitalists asking their children for opinions on consumer-facing web services. The article is generally disparaging about the VC due diligence process.

    It's no secret that this practice occurs. For many web services these days, asking the children of venture capitalists for their opinions is as good as a customer call because many of these web services target children. That being said, I hope the companies (whether they be potential deals or portfolio companies) aren't relying on VC's children as their only source in the user feedback loop (which the article implies in the case of StarDoll). Ad hoc opinions from the child of a venture capitalist is no substitute for a thorough round of user testing.

    The article claims the increasing practice of VCs asking children for their opinions is based on the following environment change:

    Then, investors were immersed in the very technology they were financing, ordering books on Amazon, downloading music from Napster and buying and selling on eBay. But now, in the so-called Web 2.0 era, venture capitalists' personal interests have strayed from the sweet spot of innovation: Web sites like MySpace intended to connect people, free Internet calling tools like Skype or software for mobile phones.

    I disagree with the reasoning behind this statement (though the conclusion is close to right). Successes in both web 1.0 and 2.0 require significant technical innovation (particularly in scalability and unique leverage of accepted open standards). It's not like technical due diligence is irrelevant today. That being said, a strong user experience and presentation layer on top of technical innovation is more important than ever (more so in 2.0 than in 1.0). The increasing importance of user experience requires VCs to look outside their own personal opinions and experiences.

    I wonder if VCs interest in user experience will ever go so far that VCs will installs user testing labs in their firms. That would make me happy considering my background in usabililty :)

    14/08/2007

    VC群体能够为能源危机做些什么?

    What can the VC community do to help our energy crisis?

    By Ray Rothrock

    [This is an Op-Ed piece by Ray Rothrock, a partner at venture capital firm Venrock.]

    New Electrons Powering the Planet
    There is a tremendous opportunity in what I call "new electrons" to help drive a substantial change in the energy source of modern society. New electrons are technologies and techniques that efficiently harness and store energy and electricity. New electrons, in Venrock's view, is the most promising area of venture investing. New electrons could have a major impact because they significantly reduce emissions from fossil fired electric plants and make better use of all the fuels currently produced.

    Ethanol and biofuels have been popular fuel sources, yet adoption has been slow, they have proven to be only marginally economical and they rely on heavy government subsidies. Gasoline is a fuel that is manufactured, understood, used and safe but has plagued our planet with carbon emissions. How can fuel be refined better and stored more effectively so that it is environmentally sound and provides clean energy? How do we preserve the planet's ecological community of life if new energy sources are not lasting, and require more resources to ultimately generate the power?

    This is where new electrons come in and Venrock has identified several approaches.

    More Miles Per Gallon
    Venrock invested in Transonic Combustion as it represents a new electron by improving internal combustion engine efficiency. In other words, it minimizes the volume of carbon emissions by developing a way to reduce the amount of gasoline or other liquid fuels needed to go the same distance as engines today. With a goal of 100 miles per gallon in a stock car, Transonic is working on an "injection ignition" engine that can run efficiently on gasoline, ethanol or other fuel without electric assist or major engine modifications. A key aspect of the technology is a revolutionary new type of fuel injector. This injector can be supplemented by advanced thermal management, EGR, electronic valves, and advanced combustion chamber geometries for even better utilization of a unit of fuel. As an investor, I may be biased. But I believe Transonic represents possibly the most significant improvement in internal combustion efficiency engines in decades.

    Battery Power
    Our mobile society needs energy everywhere. People are all carrying devices that run on energy – mobile phones, iPods, laptops, radios and surveillance systems. It is clear that we need to have cheap, clean portable power.

    Battery power is one of the most important areas of new electrons. Its challenge is how to get the most power out of the smallest battery unit. There are some emerging techniques in battery power that provide new sources of clean energy and methods for storage. These batteries last longer, weigh less, have a miniature footprint and require shorter times to charge and recharge.

    Boston Power, another Venrock investment, represents a new electron for portable clean energy: it harnesses the power of lithium in a safe and environmentally sustainable way by increasing the lifetime of batteries. Last year, you might remember the unfortunate incident when a Dell laptop violently exploded. It was powered by lithium, a potentially dangerous element when not properly used. Much like a microphone's sound can break your ear drum when there is too much feedback, the battery used on that laptop experienced a similar chemical reaction: when the elements reinforced one another, it kept generating heat and power, leading to the fire. It is a chemistry issue and Boston Power invented a way to address it. Boston Power is reusing conventional battery materials that self regulate, to sense feedback and naturally shut down when it gets too hot. It is focused on generating power and storing it through alternative means, safely for longer run times as well.

    Fuel cell technology is a different kind of new electron. It gained popularity in the 1960s with the NASA space program. After more than 40 years of research, it is now being selectively deployed commercially. Fuel cell technology is based mostly on hydrogen, the lightest element in the universe. Hydrogen is plentiful and comes with unique chemical and physical characteristics. Fuel cell technology, as a source of green energy, has reemerged in distinct, specialty scenarios as society goes mobile and as military and law enforcement needs intensify.

    For those in our military forces, it can save lives. Venrock invested in Jadoo Power, for example, which is making a power pack for the US Special Operations Command. The goal is to reduce the weight of energy storage carried in the field. Imagine you're on the front lines and you want to survey miles ahead. Rather than send your soldiers into unknown terrain, surveillance devices that run on fuel cell technology can go in their place. With a limited heat signature and light weight, it can last weeks longer than a device running with conventional sources of energy.

    Preserving Nature with Nuclear Power
    Harnessing nuclear power, the most powerful energy source in the universe, is another example of a new electron. Nuclear energy is clean because it does not involve burning fossil fuels - the largest source of emissions of carbon dioxide, one of the greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. Today, nuclear fission power generation is much safer and currently provides about 17% of electricity in the US. It also powers many of our Navy's ships without incident. France generates three-quarters of its electricity with nuclear fission power. Improving the way we harness nuclear energy is an important area of exploration for the venture community because of its tremendous, industrial impact. How we deal with nuclear waste, though, is a political challenge, not a technical one. Public support for nuclear fission plants in the United States greatly diminished in the last three decades. Emerging economies like China are purchasing new plants form US manufacturers as this is written. It's time to seriously reconsider nuclear fission as a viable option and commence construction.

    Shaping our Planet's Future
    Individually, we can all work on our carbon footprint by driving a more fuel efficient car, better insulating our home or using compact fluorescent light bulbs. However, ultimately, advances in energy have to be at the scale of our major power grids. Venture capital makes its mark on big applications for clean energy on this industrial scale. It takes time, but both must happen.

    Regardless of the vast supply of fossil fuels, it is no longer an option to be so dependent on this source of fuel for our energy needs. The entrepreneurs that focus on new electrons – innovation that allows generation of power through alternative means efficiently and creates a way to store it – are those that are building companies that shape our planet's future.

     

    私募投资(PE)的麻烦

    The trouble with private equity

    From The Economist

    Private equity has come in for much political criticism, but its more serious problems are financial


    FOR the past few years the wild men of private equity have rampaged through the public markets. They have ventured into the drowsy glades of badly managed companies and they have stormed the citadels of multinationals. The wind has been at their backs for so long that it has been hard to imagine how anything could stop them (see article).

    This week witnessed the biggest private-equity offer in history, a buy-out of BCE, a Canadian telecoms operator, that would be worth a total of $48.5 billion. Virgin Media, a British cable company, faces a $22 billion bid. The value of takeover deals—plenty of them involving private-equity firms—soared to $2.7 trillion in the first half of the year, almost half as much again as in the last six months of 2006. Optimists will take all that as further evidence of private equity's bright hopes. But it is also possible that the weather is turning and the debt that powers private equity's siege engines is starting—just starting, mind you—to become harder to scrape together. It may not happen this month, perhaps not even this year, but sooner or later the private-equity boom will come to an end. 

    This possibility will delight private equity's many critics. Private equity is routinely charged with all sorts of iniquity. It strips companies of assets and flips them for a fast buck. It loads them up with dangerous amounts of debt, to suck out capital for its investors. It pays scant attention to employees and suppliers. Its greedy partners avoid the tax that others have to pay. If the markets turn, the volume of condemnation will only increase. Imagine the derision when funds stop making money even as their partners take home large salaries on the basis of past achievements; when private-equity-owned companies default on debts, leaving insurers and pension funds saddled with the losses; when workers are put on to the street because of desperate cost-cutting or bankruptcies.

    Public vices, private virtues

    There's some justification for complaints against the tax regime that private equity enjoys. Partners in private-equity firms benefit from a tax break on their earnings. It should be withdrawn. And, because of tax breaks on interest payments (from which all companies, private or public, benefit), the growth of debt finance erodes the tax base. Other charges are mostly groundless. Takeovers, whether by private or public companies, tend to lead to redundancies and cost cuts. In the longer run, private equity makes money from investing in a business, because a thriving company is worth more than an ailing one. Studies in Britain suggest that over time buy-outs add jobs rather than cutting them, and, in America, that buy-outs that rejoin the stockmarket perform better than other new issues.

    That would not be surprising, because of the weakness of public markets that private equity has pointed up. Since managers and boards of public companies are spending other people's cash, they sometimes do so wastefully. That is why public-company shareholders put a lot of effort into monitoring managers and boards, who, even then, can be hard to control without resorting to boardroom coups and confrontation.

    Sometimes shareholders cause trouble. They often make conflicting demands that managers must struggle to reconcile. Institutional investors tend to insist on instant performance, because their funds are judged on that quarter's returns—which undermines criticism of private equity's short-termism. The threat of shareholder lawsuits and the regulation of the public markets have added to the distracting burden of compliance and to enterprise-sapping bureaucracy. Because private-equity managers answer to a single shareholder, they have clear instructions and can spend more time creating a business with a healthy future.

    At the same time as providing a critique of the equity markets, private equity has helped turn illiquid bank-dominated debt markets into highways for delivering cheap credit. It has shown that debt can finance takeovers on an unimagined scale and in industries, including finance and technology, once thought beyond its scope.

    A storm is coming

    The power of this debt-market transformation looks as if it is about to be tested. Rising long-term interest rates have pushed up the cost of borrowing. Sensing a shift in the economics of the industry, creditors around the world have started questioning the easy money offered to private-equity firms, which feed off risky types of debt. Last week US Foodservice, an American wholesaler being bought by private-equity groups, cancelled a $3.6 billion bond-and-loan deal when lenders balked at the lack of protection they were being offered. In Australia, private-equity firms pulled out at the last minute from the country's biggest takeover, complaining of the high cost of debt. This week the sale of a British retailer fell into confusion, after two private-equity bidders withdrew. The prospect of dwindling returns makes buy-out firms reluctant to club together to buy the big companies they covet; banks, meanwhile, are growing wary of offering their own capital as “bridge” finance. Shares in Blackstone, a private-equity chieftain that listed on the stockmarket last month, have fallen below their offer price—though it is still worth a tidy $32 billion.

    That's not to say their bull run is over yet. Following Blackstone's lead, big buy-out firms continue to tap the public markets for fresh capital. There may well be a few more record-breaking takeovers. But if these squalls continue, it is not just private-equity investors who will shiver. Banks have raked in profit from the buy-out industry's appetite for loans and deal-making advice. Stockmarkets have climbed on takeover fever; more than a third of all deals in America so far this year were done by private-equity firms (in 2000, the last such takeover boom, it was a meagre 4%). High share prices make targets more expensive, and private equity is still raising record amounts of money, meaning more competition—and higher prices—for acquisitions, lowering potential returns. Private equity has scaled amazing heights; but its headiest days are probably over.  

    13/08/2007

    中国投资项目谈判的10个要点

    Ten Tips On Negotiating The China Deal

    by Dan Harris 

    Last week I spent a lot of time talking with new and potential clients about China. Probably the two things I found myself saying most often were the following:

    1. If the deal your Chinese counterpart is proposing to you does not seem to make economic sense to you, it almost certainly doesn't.

    2. The longer I have been practicing law, the more certain I am that the simplest solution is the best solution nearly every time. I have been practicing law long enough so that if I cannot understand the deal it is not because I am an idiot, but because it either cannot be understood or is simply too complicated for anyone's good.

    These two ideas are really at the core of an excellent post just up on the Chinese Negotiation Blog, entitled, "10 Signs that your China Deal is Getting Too Complicated."

    The post starts out by rightly noting that Westerners doing business with China too often make the mistake of being so "sensitive to cultural and interpersonal issues that they lose sight of business issues:"

    The key to success in China is to walk away from bad deals and find good ones. I know – that sounds simple. The fact is that many newcomers to China business have trouble spotting the red flags and danger zones that indicate a deal is about to fall apart. The result is that they hang in there and keep negotiating with inappropriate counter-parties until they end up with a bad compromise and a disastrous deal.

    The post then points out the common strategy (the post makes it seem this is a Chinese strategy, but I have seen it employed just about everywhere) of using "complicated structures and drawn out timetables to insert advantageous terms or conditions that get lost in the shuffle." It then lists ten "warning signs that a deal is about to get too complicated too fast." My own comments are in bold.

    1. "Terms that will change at unspecified times or circumstances in the future. This is particularly true of price, cost, product line or technology. As in 'we'll sell you the existing technology at price X, and when the new product line is ready we'll lower the price to Y.' May also include: 'when we move to the new facility…,' 'when we get the approval from the government…,' 'when we develop the new product…,' 'when we hire the new engineer…,' 'when we tie up with our sister company....' It's not that they're necessarily lying – but you can grow old waiting for the conditions to become reality." I concur.

    2. "New technology or connections to be introduced later – but priced now." You should be concerned both that the new technology will not work and that it will never happen. There is no more reason to do such a deal with a Chinese company than anywhere else.

    3. "Asymmetrical payouts. You pay now – they deliver at some unspecified time in the future." This is a good way to lose a lot of money fast.

    4. "Open ended liabilities or unsettled valuations." Your deal should have specific valuations and timetables; do not sign a contract unless and until all important terms have been agreed upon. This is true everywhere, but truer in China than almost anywhere else. Chinese courts seldom imply terms into a contract so good luck trying to claim to a Chinese court that "everyone in the industry knows shipments are to be made within 30 days."

    5. Best effort sales/marketing deals are a "big red flag in China." "Chinese distributors are notoriously sketchy when it comes to fulfilling best-effort sales agreements." Very true.

    6. "Anything involving connections, relationships or trust. If they say 'I have guanxi' you say 'I have to go.' Seriously." EXACTLY. Either it is a good deal on its own terms or it is not. "Guanxi" does not make a deal.

    7. "Mysterious new players enter – particularly decision makers – and change the terms.' This can happen in any country but it is a common tactic in China." Yes.

    8. Be careful of a deal that escalates too quickly into a "long-term, multi-transaction Joint Venture (JV)." I concur. Far too often our clients come to us for assistance in forming a joint venture with a Chinese company with whom they have never done even one Yuan of business. Just as you would not form a long term partnership outside China with someone you do not know well, you should not do so in China either.

    9. Do not do anything without a signed written contract. "Usually this takes the form of "the owner/accountant/treasurer is away on vacation and we can't stamp the contract until he's back but if we don't get the deposit now we won't be able to make the deadline…" No. Just plain NO." I completely concur.

    10. "They tell you that something is too complicated to explain. They're right. Walk away now." I agree.

    Simple, isn't it?

     
    12/08/2007

    想向红杉(Sequoia)融资吗?发个商业计划书:按照这个格式

    Want Sequoia Funding? Submit a Business Plan: Here's How

    by Donna Bogatin

    Who needs a business plan? Venture capitalists Fred Wilson and Paul Kedrosky have famously rated them overrated, and so has Paul Graham.

    Graham's YCombinator, a "new kind of venutre firm" declares it "never reads business plans" in making funding decisions.

    Graham now proposes an "equity equation" purporting to answer "one of the hardest questions founders face":

    An investor wants to give you money for a certain percentage of your startup. Should you take it?

    The equation–1/(1 - n) –Graham offers projects funding decisions as almost irrefutable mathematical formulas. A formula, though, is only as certain as its inputs.

    Graham uses Sequoia Capital as an example:

    One of the things the equity equation shows us is that, financially at least, taking money from a top VC firm can be a really good deal. Greg Mcadoo from Sequoia recently said at a YC dinner that when Sequoia invests alone they like to take about 30% of a company. 1/.7 = 1.43, meaning that deal is worth taking if they can improve your outcome by more than 43%. For the average startup, that would be an extraordinary bargain. It would improve the average startup's prospects by more than 43% just to be able to say they were funded by Sequoia, even if they never actually got the money.

    BUT, how will Sequoia improve outcomes by 43%? THAT is the key question that a startup must get to the bottom of.

    HOW can entrepreneurs evaluate if Sequoia involvement WOULD be sufficently beneficial? By submitting a business plan to Sequoia to see how Sequoia capital and strategic support would enhance and accelerate achievement of desired financial objectives.

    Graham's asessment of a Sequoia involvement, however, is nonsensical: "It would improve the average startup's prospects by more than 43% just to be able to say they were funded by Sequoia, even if they never actually got the money."

    Contrary to Graham's YCombinator, though, Sequoia does not only read business plans, they require them, in detail. Want Sequoia funding? Submit a business plan, as follows:

    Company Purpose

    • Define the company/business in a single declarative sentence.

    Problem

    • Describe the pain of the customer (or the customer's customer).
    • Outline how the customer addresses the issue today.

    Solution

    • Demonstrate your company's value proposition to make the customer's life better.
    • Show where your product physically sits.
    • Provide use cases.

    Why Now

    • Set-up the historical evolution of your category.
    • Define recent trends that make your solution possible.

    Market Size

    • Identify/profile the customer you cater to.
    • Calculate the TAM (top down), SAM (bottoms up) and SOM.

    Competition

    • List competitors
    • List competitive advantages

    Product

    • Product line-up (form factor, functionality, features, architecture, intellectual property).
    • Development roadmap.

    Business Model

    • Revenue model
    • Pricing
    • Average account size and/or lifetime value
    • Sales & distribution model
    • Customer/pipeline list

    Team

    • Founders & Management
    • Board of Directors/Board of Advisors

    Financials

    • P&L
    • Balance sheet
    • Cash flow
    • Cap table
    • The deal

    Paul Kedrosky assisted Graham with his "equity equation." Contrary to Infectious Greed's "no business plan please" VC lesson re: Wilson's Twitter funding, Kedrosky's own VC firm, Ventures West, does indeed require business plans for funding consideration, same as Sequoia, as I noted earlier this week in: Dabble DB Kedrosky VC Lesson: Business Model Required.

    Startup cool apps may be cool, but nothing beats cold hard cash, the kind that entrepreneurial business planning targets.

    11/08/2007

    融太多资金会限制你的选择机会

    Raising too much money limits your options

    by Nic Brisbourne

    Friday 10th August has turns out to be a day of plagiarism for me, but this from Dick Costello of Feedburner fame (amongst other things) is a great point:

    the astute first time entrepreneur in my audience is thinking "but I'm not looking to sell my company for 60 million either! My idea is huge, and I think it's a home run and I want to go for it!" That's obviously the right attitude, and it's an attitude you will need, and it's the attitude that your investors will want to see from you. Nonetheless, I don't think it makes sense for most entrepreneurs to raise big A rounds, because you don't want to price yourself out of interesting opportunities in the first year or two. By raising too much money, you force your hand on the kind of company that you have to build, whether you want to or not.

    I have seen this countless times and can think of companies where it is happening right now. The shame of it is that what could have been nice little investments end up raising a number of big rounds become a constant disappointment to all involved. They probably also end up churning through a couple of management teams.

    We are all aiming for billion dollar companies when we start out but the truth of history is that the vast majority of successful companies sell for well under $60m (I don't have stats here, but I'm sure this is true).  The vast majority of companies overall are unsuccessful and don't sell for anything meaningful at all.

    The problem with raising too large a series A is that it can make lower exits unattractive for the investors, which means they won't happen.  So raising too big a round ends up forcing a binary situation where the outcome is home run or nothing.

    At Series A stage it is usually too early to be limiting your options like that.

    On the other hand you don't want to raise too little either - you should make sure you are getting enough money to get to 6-9 months after a valuation milestone so you can raise a good upround.  And give yourself a nice cushion so you have some margin for error.  

    黑石+中国=泡沫婚姻

     Blackstone + China = Bubble Marriage

    By William Pesek

    Enlarge Image
    Portrait of Mao Zedong, former leader of China

    It would be fascinating to see what Mao Zedong would make of China's $3 billion investment in Blackstone Group.

    Here you have the world's most-watched communist nation investing in perhaps the most capitalist of Wall Street vehicles: a private-equity firm. China is doing so with foreign-exchange reserves, which it uses to ensure employment for its 1.3 billion people.

    For Asia's No. 2 economy, "the Blackstone investment represents a supreme business irony," Donald Straszheim, vice chairman of Newport Beach, California-based Roth Capital Partners, told clients in a report yesterday.

    China's embrace of the private-equity movement, which the country's regulators have long viewed with suspicion, is about expediency. Officials in Beijing have $1.2 trillion of reserves they want to invest more profitably than in U.S. Treasuries. They lack the expertise to do it themselves and don't want to pay money managers millions in fees.

    Enter New York-based Blackstone, an institution with the expertise that Chinese bureaucrats lack: running globally competitive companies. For Blackstone, the deal is a way of improving private equity's image in Beijing.

    It's a marriage seemingly made in investment heaven. That is, until you consider it also could be the bonding of the world's most obvious bubbles.

    China's Bubbles

    China, of course, has at least a couple of bubbles on its hands. One is the equivalent of Spain's annual gross domestic product in reserves. The other is the irrationally exuberant surge in Chinese stocks, which Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest man, says "must be a bubble."

    Then there's the private-equity bubble. Banks are helping fund a record pace of mergers this year, with the value of announced leveraged buyouts soaring 40 percent to $188 billion in the first quarter alone. Last week, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said private-equity financing carries "significant risks" for banks, and the Fed is reviewing the issue.

    "It's very important for banks to be quite aware of the risks that are associated with working with private-equity firms," Bernanke said. "We are beginning to look at that."

    Bernanke didn't use the word "bubble," yet when it comes to Fedspeak, that's a strong suggestion that the central banker senses one. It's worth noting that New York Fed President Timothy Geithner also said officials are "looking carefully" at the loans that finance leveraged buyouts.

    Private-Equity Boom

    Geithner will be the guy left picking up the pieces if a private-equity-related meltdown shakes up markets the way the 1998 implosion of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management did. None of this means the private-equity phenomenon will go bad, though this is a case where regulators are moving too slowly to assess the risks to the global financial system.

    The budding relationship between China and private equity dovetails with a report this week from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. It said the boom in buyouts is due to excess liquidity and low yields caused by distortions in the global system -- mainly in China and Japan.

    These transactions are facilitated when either borrowing costs or exchange rates are held too low. "Two major prices in the world economy worth noting in this respect are the near-zero interest rates in Japan and the fixed exchange rate for the renminbi," the OECD said.

    Distortions

    Private-equity firms are forces of change in the global markets and they can create new efficiencies. Yet their activities respond directly to the cost of global credit. At the moment, China's currency policy, together with Japan's ultra-low interest rates, is a key source of the liquidity feeding bubbles.

    "We have actually now bubbles everywhere," Marc Faber, who oversees $300 million in assets at Marc Faber Ltd., told Bloomberg News in Zurich on May 21. "We have bubbles in real estate, in equities, in bonds, in commodities, in art prices and totally useless collectibles. So, this bubble is huge and includes just about any asset in the world."

    Faber is hardly alone in this view, and perhaps all the liquidity seeping out of China and Japan explains why. If there are bubbles across asset classes, could they really be happening coincidentally? It may be that the side effects of two dynamics thought to be benefiting investors -- Chinese growth and cheap loans from Japan -- are setting the stage for a global swoon.

    The linking of China and companies such as Blackstone won't please some U.S. lawmakers. Blackstone aims to raise as much as $7.75 billion selling stock to the public and to China in the biggest share offering by a private-equity firm.

    On the one hand, it's a creative way for China to put some reserves in U.S. assets without being accused of manipulating its currency. On the other, it means two issues that lawmakers hope to exploit in next year's elections are becoming more complex.

    Mao, who died in 1976, would hardly recognize the China of 2007. Then again, few would have predicted the changes that have taken place in his homeland.

    (William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

    10/08/2007

    VC与色情行业

     

    VCs and the Naughty Bits

    by Randall Lucas

    I spotted a piece by Paul Kedrosky today during a blog-feeds-catchup-session where Paul talks about a sort of "(minimum) two degree of separation" rule that VCs maintain between themselves and the sex industry. (Quotes above for my words, not his.) In other words: benefiting from infrastructure, transport, payment mechanisms -- cool. Having fleshy bits linked to from the portfolio companies page -- not cool.

    This reminds me of an early experience I had at Voyager. We were looking at a company that was building an online search / social media app. They talked about people using it for various applications -- consumer, enterprise, small business, blah blah blah. We were just about to the end of the pitch, when I asked pretty straightforwardly: "So, what's the sex angle here? Is there an application in dating or porn?"

    The room went silent.

    I pushed on, oblivious to the mood that had just chilled like a shot of Jaeger down an ice luge. "You know, like VHS, or modems for BBSes, or early adoption of Web marketing tricks like affiliate programs and popups," I articulated despite the intrusion of my foot now rapidly entering my oral cavity. "Is there a strategy for accelerating adoption around that content?"

    The founders were visibly uncomfortable. Mercifully, my boss was not pissed, just bemused. "I ... I guess people could use it for other things, too," said one of the founders, finally. Handshakes all around, a quick note on our investment process, and we'll get back to you after next week's partner meeting, ciao for now.

    Oops. Back at the office, this is addressed.

    "Randall, in the venture business, we have certain things we don't talk about, and certain things we don't invest in, due to a number of reasons."

    At the time, I'm thinking: OK, VCs are pillars of the community, have to show up at the Opera, at the charity events, at the B-school reunions, and can't be branded pornographer or such. I filed this away under the "shit not to talk about, Einstein" filter, along with ever admitting to listening to Journey, or denigrating tattoos while speaking to anyone whom you've never seen fully naked.

    But now, Paul Kedrosky gives me a flashback and with a key piece of insight. It's a follow the money moment: "... until the venture business is funded by groups other than pension funds, trusts, and endowments (ahem), the likelihood of mainstream VCs ever getting beyond flirtations [[with the sex business]] is vanishingly small." Yep, follow the money. The paymasters here are the Prudent Men, the real stodgy guys, the Trustees and the Chairmen and the Stewards and the Overseers.

    And frankly, this is probably a good thing. It's a little like the Senate. You don't want the country entirely run by a bunch of pasty old white dudes, most all millionaires, 60 years old and who won't be fired for 12 years (on average), and who probably still think that Kudzu and the missile gap are our biggest national problems. But you don't want a bunch of whippersnappers on the make driving all your big decisions without recourse to the accumulated wisdom of years past.

    The real test will be if one of the trendsetter endowment funds like Harvard or Yale green lights a VC or PE investment that targets the sin sectors. If that ever happens, then the VC business will start to get a lot more (directly) involved in the naughty bits...

    09/08/2007

    优先清偿权:对Leo Parker Dirac的回应

    Liquidation Preferences: A Response to Leo Dirac

    by Randall Lucas

    In a recent blog entry, Leo Parker Dirac poses the question of the fairness of liquidation preferences in VC financings of startups. He's going to be delivering a lightning talk based on it tonight at Ignite Seattle.

    (To those of you who don't know, liquidation preferences, or prefs, are usually a multiple of invested dollars that a VC gets out first, before anyone else is paid. This is because if you take $10 M from a VC for half your company, then shut down the company one second after depositing the VC's check, he would only have a claim on half of it, thereby snookering him out of $5 M. To avoid this outcome, and due to our general greed, we VCs like to ask for at least a 1.0x preference, meaning that you have no incentive to shut down the company until you've grown it to something more than our investment dollars.)

    His conclusion seems to be that liq prefs can be fair if transparently communicated to all parties. Of course, this implies that sometimes, details of prefs are not communicated clearly.

    How can this be? I've seen many tens of term sheets, and never once have I seen one that uses invisible ink. Neither have I ever seen a term sheet that has a clause invalidating it if you show it to your lawyer. In short, there is never a case where an entrepreneur isn't reasonably informed about prefs.

    Let me construct an example. Say that you're a first-time entrepreneur, and that you don't have anyone on your exec team, nor on your board of directors, nor among your existing investors, who's ever seen a term sheet before. (I was in that spot starting my first company back in 2000, by the way.) And, let's say, you get hold of a term sheet that casually throws out there something like "holders of Series A shall be entitled to an amount per-share equal to two times the per-share price..." and you don't know what it means.

    Well, one thing I can absolutely promise you is that no VC is trying to sneak one by you for a shot at 2x his money. A VC investment just takes way too much heartache and worry and effort -- not to mention opportunity-cost of not investing in the billion-dollar blockbuster every VC's looking for -- for a VC to fuck around with taking a chance at cheating you out of a couple million (remember, he has to give all but 20% of that profit to his investors, and split that 20% through some formula of his partnership, so even if he cheats you out of $5 M he's not going to deposit more than a few hundred $k in the bank, and that's at risk of losing his several hundred $k per year sinecure for a GP of a decent-sized fund).

    Another thing I can promise you is that no VC ever wants you to sign anything without reading it and having your lawyer read it twice. Think about this one for just a second: I'm about to wire you enough money to buy twenty or thirty Porsches, based on the notion that you're a brilliant businessman who's going to make us both rich. Do I want to give thirty Porsches worth of cold, hard cash to the kind of guy who signs deals without reading the contract??? Seriously: I want you to be the slickest of salesmen, the toughest of negotiators, and the most diligent of dealmakers (not to mention a prodigious engineer, a revered leader, and a master marketer). VCs do not want to give money to sloppy suckers who can't be bothered to read and understand a term sheet -- including seeking savvy legal counsel when appropriate!

    Now, having said all this, there are at least two cases where Leo's thinking really does apply to the question of liq prefs. (It shows of Leo that his thinking on the matter of prefs is mostly abstract, that he does not mention either of these two cases.)

    The first case is where you are dealing with a fake VC. A real VC is someone who spends full time managing a fund of committed capital from one or more arm's length investors, which capital amounts to at least, say, $10 M per general partner and is entirely meant to be invested in growth companies for the purpose of financial returns primarily via capital appreciation. A fake VC is anyone else who calls himself a VC without pointing out the major differences with the above. And a fake VC has God-knows-what sort of motivation and may well want to swindle you out of a preference multiple.

    Your uncle who owns a chain of bagel shops is not a VC. A hedge fund is not a VC. A dude who claims to represent a group of "anonymous Asian industrial families" is not a VC. Anyone who is keeping his day job is not a VC. Real estate guys are not VCs. Note that this doesn't mean they are bad people (unless they pretend to be VCs, in which case they are fake VCs). It just means that the ground rules that you can understand all VCs to play by don't apply.

    If you're not dealing with a real VC, read everything three times and have your lawyer read it six.

    The second case is in follow-on rounds where the company is in a distressed situation. Everything Leo talks about (and everything I assume in the first part of this post) is about the moment before you take your first VC investment: do I take this capital, with its strings attached, for a shot at building my dream? The alternative there is to simply walk away, and go back to working at Microsoft. But once you're hot and heavy with a company, once you've raised money, promised the moon and the stars to your friends and family, bamboozled the VCs into funding you, alienated all your social contacts and exacerbated your RSI, hired fantastic people and worked them to exhaustion and made them love you enough to drink the Kool-aid, extended commitments based on your word and your honor to customers and suppliers -- only to find that revenues aren't ramping up fast enough and you need cash -- OK, now you are officially up against a wall. And precisely now is when you will be addled from overwork, and adrenalin-high, and blinded with the urgency of your need -- and when the sharks will smell blood.

    That is when you will get the predatory term sheet.

    If Leo wants to do entrepreneurs (and VCs) a favor, he should take a hard look at what happens then: when you've got a company that still holds promise, but is in a distressed situation and needs capital for its very survival. Exploring those moral complexities is a lot more interesting than the sort of clean-room, game-theoretical chatter about whether one accepts term X on a first round of capital.